Worldwide, approximately 11.7 million hectares of olive groves are cultivated in 66 olive-producing countries. This generates an average annual production of around 3 million tons of olive oil. However, in the last ten years, production has fluctuated between 2.4 million tons in the current campaign and 3.4 million tons in 2021, the largest harvest ever recorded. Although the average is 3 million tons, variations between campaigns can reach up to one million tons.

As an additional fact, approximately 33% of olive groves are cultivated under irrigation, while the remaining 66% are cultivated under dry land. The climate is the most determining factor in the alternation of olive oil production.

Although 66 countries produce olive oil in both hemispheres, production is highly concentrated. The Southern Hemisphere, which normally contributes 2.5% of world production, achieved an unprecedented share in the last campaign. However, only nine countries, all located in the Northern Hemisphere, account for more than 95% of total production.

Below is an analysis of the estimated production for the main producing countries, based on direct observations and with the caution that these calculations require:

• Spain: It could record a harvest slightly above average, with 1.45 million tons.
• Tunisia: With 11% of its olive groves irrigated, a production of 300 thousand tons is estimated.
• Turkey: With a good production and an increase in the quantity of olives destined for olive oil, it could reach 280 thousand tons.
• Greece: A production of 240 thousand tons is expected.
• Italy: Affected by problems in the Puglia region, a production of 220 thousand tons is projected.
• Portugal: Frost has damaged part of the fruit, reducing the estimated production to 190 thousand tons.
• Morocco: It could maintain its average slightly lower with 110 thousand tons.
• Syria and Algeria: They are expected to produce 90 thousand and 65 thousand tons, respectively.

 

The remaining 57 countries would jointly produce 165 thousand tons. In total, global production of between 2.8 and 3 million tons is expected for the 2024/25 campaign. This figure ensures prices above the cost threshold and allows all links in the chain, from the producer to the final consumer, to operate with reasonable margins.